Image Credit: bobbyfortn.com, jonlundberg.com
Press Release –
The data in the latest polling conducted by Remington Research Group indicate Bobby Harshbarger is the strongest candidate heading into the upcoming Republican Primary Election for State Senate.
With a strong image right out the gate, as well as strong message tests and ballot performance, Harshbarger should have no issues coming out on top in August – as long as a well-executed messaging campaign is implemented this summer.
In contrast to Harshbarger’s strong data, incumbent candidate Jon Lundberg finds himself in a particularly vulnerable position heading into August– with his image underwater and extremely soft support from his current electorate.
Candidate Images
Incumbent candidate Jon Lundberg’s image is underwater, a condemning data point that will be hard to overcome after being in office since 2007. With roughly a third of the electorate having an unfavorable opinion of him, this will be hard to overcome in the next couple of months leading up to the August Republican Primary.
Q: What is your opinion of Jon Lundberg?
Favorable: 23%
Unfavorable: 32%
No opinion: 45%
Dissimilarly to Lundberg, Bobby Harshbarger finds himself in a promising position heading into the early summer. Harshbarger’s image is net favorable by double digits – with over half of the electorate having no opinion of him. His lower name ID is beneficial at this point in the race, as he has over two months to implement a strong messaging campaign – informing the electorate of his strengths and Lundberg’s weaknesses, and driving both his image and name ID up and in the right direction.
Q: What is your opinion of Bobby Harshbarger?
Favorable: 32%
Unfavorable: 14%
No opinion: 54%
Messaging
After candidate images, respondents read a handful of statements, consisting of both positive and negative messages, about both candidates. The result was extremely high message performance. Republican voters are overwhelmingly sensitive to Lundberg’s vulnerabilities (largely regarding his voting history) and highly receptive to Harshbarger’s resume and values.
Ballot
Finally, respondents were read one final question—the ballot. After hearing all the messages, the result was overwhelmingly in Harshbarger’s favor. The ballot data shows us that Bobby will win in a landslide with a well-funded and executed messaging campaign.
Q: Candidates in the August 1st Republican Primary Election for State Senate are Jon Lundberg and Bobby Harshbarger. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Jon Lundberg: 13%
Bobby Harshbarger: 70%
Undecided: 17%
CONCLUSION
It is clear Bobby Harshbarger’s values resonate with the people of East Tennessee- and Jon Lundberg’s values and voting history do not represent the district. Bobby will have no issue pulling out on top if he’s able to fully communicate his background and ideals to the electorate (both of which data show emulate the ideals of SD-04 voters). As an incumbent, Jon Lundberg being (substantially) under 50% in both ballot share and image only a couple months out from Election Day, he is unlikely to recover. This is not to say it is impossible, which is why it is important Harshbarger continue to execute a robust messaging campaign heading into August.
METHODOLOGY
Survey conducted May 21 through May 23, 2024. 563 likely 2024 Republican Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-5.6% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding.
Learn More about Jon Lundberg’s voting record as Tennessee State Senator:
