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Submitted by Rob Mitchell [Rutherford County Assessor of Property] –
Tennessee’s population landscape is undergoing significant shifts, with some counties experiencing rapid growth while others face decline. Here’s an analysis of the current trends and future projections for the state’s most populous counties.
Top 5 Counties by Population (2024 Estimates):
1. Shelby County: 910,042 (-0.69% growth rate)
2. Davidson County: 712,334 (+0.7% growth rate)
3. Knox County: 500,669 (+1.06% growth rate)
4. Hamilton County: 379,864 (+1.39% growth rate)
5. Rutherford County: 373,520 (+2.48% growth rate)
Current Trends and Projections
Shelby County
Despite being the most populous county, Shelby is experiencing a population decline. In 2023, it lost 6,315 residents, continuing a downward trend that began in 2012. This trend is expected to continue, with the county projected to lose around 31,000 residents by 2029.
Davidson County
Nashville’s home county has rebounded from a previous decline, adding 4,983 residents in 2023. It maintains steady growth, ranking 5th in numeric population increase among Tennessee counties. However, its growth rate lags behind some faster-growing counties.
Knox County
Knoxville’s county shows strong growth, adding 5,289 residents in 2023. It ranks 2nd in the state for numeric population increase, driven largely by net domestic migration. It’s projected to exceed 530,000 residents by 2029.
Hamilton County
Chattanooga’s county continues to grow robustly, adding 5,262 new residents in 2023. It ranks 3rd in the state for numeric population increase. Chattanooga’s revitalization and growing tech industry contribute to Hamilton County’s robust growth rate. It’s expected to add about 26,000 residents by 2029.
Rutherford County
With the highest growth rate among the top five, Rutherford County added 6,419 residents in 2023, a 1.8% increase. It has led the state in numeric population growth for eight consecutive years. Its proximity to Nashville and suburban development are key factors in its growth. The county is on track to reach 500,000 residents by 2039-2040.
Projected Rankings and Population Changes
• By 2026, Rutherford County is likely to overtake Hamilton County as the 4th most populous county.
• While Shelby County is expected to remain the largest through 2029, its lead over Davidson County will be significantly narrow.
• If current trends persist, Davidson County could become Tennessee’s most populous county by 2035.
• Rutherford County’s rapid growth may see it challenging Knox County for the 3rd spot beyond 2030.
Statewide Growth Patterns
Tennessee’s population growth is widespread, with 90 out of 95 counties seeing increases in 2023. This level of widespread growth hasn’t been observed since the mid-1990s.
Rural County Growth
Rural counties in Tennessee are experiencing significant growth:
• 74 out of 78 rural counties gained population in 2023.
• Overall rural growth rate was 1.4% in 2023, up from 1.3% in 2022.
• Wilson and Maury counties led rural growth with increases of 5,081 and 2,764 residents respectively.
Fastest-Growing Counties
While Rutherford County leads in numeric growth, Loudon County saw the highest percentage increase at 4%, followed by Wilson County at 3.2%. These counties, along with others in Middle Tennessee, are driving much of the state’s population growth.
Conclusion
Tennessee’s population dynamics reflect broader trends of urbanization, suburban expansion, and renewed interest in rural areas. The state’s overall growth, including in rural counties, positions Tennessee as an increasingly attractive destination for new residents.
Sources:
1. Tennessee State Data Center
2. Boyd Center Population Projections
One Response
As a Loudon County resident, I have seen the profound impact of our growth in population over the last few years. While I understand why people are fleeing from other areas of our country, I can’t see how our county can continue to support this growth without making some very hard choices. I do not want us to become a bedroom community for Knoxville, nor do I want to see our county lose its charm by being overrun with a hip/yuppy crowd either.
To suffer from gentrification that could possibly fail.
It’s hard enough to find housing in our county, and what is available is outrageously expensive. So expensive that many of our lower income families have been forced to move out of the county looking for more affordable housing.
Traffic is also becoming a daily concern. Not only are we seeing the impact people moving in and their need to travel about, but also, the development of commercial warehousing has increased the truck traffic. As a professional driver myself, on one hand I view this as a net good, but the sheer volume of traffic on many of our major routes and cross roads is making it difficult for many trucking companies to even get on to the highways from their terminals. I often have to wait at the intersection to the state highway that leads to the interstate because of the volume of traffic that uses that road. In addition those of us that live in the country, have noticed that many of our new neighbors are used to conveniences of the city: wider roads, more street lights. This is leading to issues with folks not sharing the road. Most of our courty roads are narrow, and have curves. They aren’t meant to be drag strips, but the folks that are moving to the country think that 20 mph over the posted speed, and driving down the middle of the road, is perfectly acceptable. It is beginning to cause conflicts and friction.
I say these things not to complain, but to offer guidance to those other counties that are experiencing growth. There will have to much discussion and planning in order to keep order, functionality, and peace in the community. Without it, it could end up like so many other cities in the country, massive urban sprawl, and uniformity. So much that, you don’t realize that you have traveled from one community, to another.