Image Credit: Marsha Blackburn / Facebook & Canva.
Article by Olivia Lupia, Tennessee Conservative News –
A poll recently conducted by the Beacon Center of Tennessee shows Republican Marsha Blackburn well ahead in her race for governor while another by Spry Strategies names U.S. Rep. Tim Burchett as the favorite to replace her in the Senate.
The Beacon Center’s poll was comprised on an online sample of 1,200 registered Tennessee voters across the political spectrum with fieldwork being conducted August 15-26, 2026. Results were then weighted by demographics, party, geography, and behavioral measures “to properly reflect the profile of the state.”
Among 607 “likely voters”, Blackburn saw a 21-point advantage over Democrat Jerri Green in the race for governor, 55% to 34%. Though when factoring in those who may not have considered themselves “likely voters”, the sample size increased to 1,149 and the margin narrowed, putting Blackburn at 46% to Green’s 33%.
Roughly 8% of respondents said they would vote for an independent candidate, and amongst those 87 individuals, Lauren Pinkston and David Hatley were nearly tied at 14% and 13% respectively while 33% selected “I’m not sure.”
Meanwhile, Tennesseans appeared split on the amount of trust they have in the Tennessee State Government, with both total trust and distrust percentages landing at 40% each. Within the trust category, 33% said they “trust somewhat” in the state government while 7% said they “trust completely.” Among those expressing distrust the split was closer with 24% responding they “distrust somewhat” and 15% answering “distrust completely.”
The U.S. Senate race saw even wider margins than the governor’s, with Republican Bill Hagerty polling 25 points ahead of Democrat Marquita Bradshaw amongst 607 likely voters, 58% to 33% in the rematch from their 2020 race. When again factoring in all respondents, the sample size increased to 1,157 and the margin dropped slightly to put Hagerty at 51% to Bradshaw’s 31%, a 20-point difference.
However, trust in the federal government overall is apparently underwater across the board, with 59% of 1,200 respondents of all political demographics saying they distrust the system to some degree. “Distrust somewhat” and “Distrust completely” both received 29%, while 15% said they neither trust nor distrust the federal government. Only 26% of participants had any kind of favorable opinion, with 22% saying they “Somewhat trust” and 4% answering “Trust completely.”
Looking past the November elections, the Spry Strategies survey asked 900 likely Republican general election voters who they would like to see appointed to replace Blackburn in the U.S. Senate should she win the governor’s seat. With 284 votes, equaling almost 32% of the total, U.S. Rep. Tim Burchett was named the favorite.
Other names on the list included U.S. Rep. Chuck Fleischmann, former CEO of private prison operator CoreCivic Damon Hininger, former Knox County Mayor Glenn Jacobs, Tennessee Speaker of the House Cameron Sexton, and Deputy Governor Stuart McWhorter. Jacobs was the only name besides Burchett to pull double digit percentages, sitting at 10.2%, and the other four combined only totaled 11.2%.
The poll found that voters want a senator with “conservative conviction, candor, and independence,” and while Burchett appeared to best fit that profile of the offered candidates, 423 respondents, approximately 47%, still selected “Unsure/Refuse”, showing that of the given names Burchett was the most popular but not the choice of the majority.
Another question asked participants who they would choose if they had to select a Senate successor today, and the results did shift significantly, with almost 45% picking Burchett, though the number of respondents dropped to 423. Jacobs remained second choice with 69 votes, giving him 16.4%, and the other four remained well below.
Burchett, who endorsed Blackburn during the primary election, has said he remains open to the possibility of filling the Senate vacancy should Blackburn win. “My priority is Tennessee’s 2nd Congressional District, but if there was an opportunity to serve in the U.S. Senate, I’d be honored to make that move,” he said last month.
If Burchett is ultimately appointed to fill Blackburn’s senate seat, he would serve the remainder of the current term until the next statewide Senate election in 2028. And should Burchett move to the Senate, his House seat would become vacant, triggering a special election to choose a new representative.
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About the Author: Olivia Lupia is a political refugee from Colorado who now calls Tennessee home. A proud follower of Christ, she views all political happenings through a Biblical lens and aims to utilize her knowledge and experience to educate and equip others. Olivia is an outspoken conservative who has run for local office, managed campaigns, and been highly involved with state & local GOPs, state legislatures, and other grassroots organizations and movements. Olivia can be reached at olivia@tennesseeconservativenews.com.
