Republicans face their toughest electoral challenge since the 2018 midterms, but the legislative majority is not in play.
Image: The 2026 midterm elections will be held on Nov. 3. Image Credit: John Partipilo
***Note from The Tennessee Conservative – this article posted here for informational purposes only.
By Adam Friedman [Tennessee Lookout -CC BY-NC-ND 4.0] –
Tennessee could see 16 competitive state House and Senate races this fall, based on past state elections in similar political environments, according to an analysis by the Lookout of the nonpartisan Dave’s Redistricting election data.
Nationally, the Democratic Party is expected to have a strong 2026 midterm election, but the question remains how strong and whether that translates to Tennessee, a state Republicans have dominated for almost two decades.
Republicans control the state House 75 to 24 seats and the state Senate 27 to 6.
The 2026 midterm political environment is most similar to a 2025 special election for a Middle Tennessee U.S. House seat and the 2018 Tennessee Senate race. In both elections, Republicans controlled the White House, and the President’s approval rating was around 40%.
In a 2025 special election, the Democrat nominee won 45% of the vote, less than one year after Vice President Kamala Harris received 38% of the district vote, a 7 percentage point swing.
In 2018, the Democrat nominee for Senate won 45% of the statewide vote, while two years earlier, former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton won 34% of the statewide vote, an 11 percentage point swing.
No one in the Democrat party has performed as well as former Gov. Phil Bredesen did in the 2018 race against Sen. Marsha Blackburn, which Blackburn won.
Races to watch
The most hotly contested area will be Memphis, where Republican state Rep. John Gillespie holds a seat that former Vice President Kamala Harris won in 2024. Gillespie faced similar headwinds in 2024, but prevailed by about 3 percentage points. Jesse Huseth, a Memphis businessman who ran against Gillespie in 2024, will again challenge Gillespie. Memphis Republicans, state Rep. Mark White and Sen. Brent Taylor, both hold seats Trump won by less than 10 points.
The Democrat Party could also be forced to defend some of its Middle Tennessee seats. In Clarksville, state Rep. Ronnie Glynn holds a seat Trump won in 2024, which he has narrowly won in the past two elections.
In West Nashville, state Rep. Caleb Hemmer won back-to-back elections in a seat that was that Harris won by 0.2%. Hemmer announced he is not running for reelection. Three Democrats have announced their intention to run for the seat.
It’s still unclear if there will be a Democrat and a Republican running in each of these races. The filing deadline for candidates is noon on March 10. The primary is August 6, and the general election is November 3.
One Response
We’d have a great state if we didn’t have lucifer’s accursed cities full of idiots and criminals..