Potential Scenarios For Tennessee’s New State Senate Map

Senate Republicans will try to keep their 27-6 advantage.

Image Credit: Graphic designed by Adam Friedman, Tennessee Lookout

By Adam Friedman [Tennessee Lookout -CC BY-NC-ND 4.0] –

After almost two years in court, a three-judge panel ruled that Tennessee lawmakers must redraw their state Senate map because of an issue regarding the numbering of districts. 

Tennessee Senate Maps Ruled Unconstitutional

Republicans hold a 27-6 advantage in the state Senate, drawing the most recent maps in 2022 to avoid giving the Democrats a chance at winning a seventh seat. 

To accomplish this goal, Republicans drew Sen. Mark Pody, R-Lebanon, district 17’s seat into Davidson County. But the panel ruled this map invalid under a numbering rule requiring seats in the same county to be consecutively numbered. Davidson County’s four Senate districts are 17, 19, 20 and 21, with Democrats representing the other three seats. 

Lt. Gov. Randy McNally, R-Oak Ridge, said an appeal is likely, citing the dissenting opinion in the 2-1 ruling in favor of new maps. 

The judges gave lawmakers until Jan. 31 to submit new districts. This leaves Republicans with three options for drawing new maps, two of which are likely, and the possibility that Democrats could challenge any new map in court again. 

The Rules

Before presenting the maps, there are some things to consider. 

Any new Senate map must meet the population and numbering requirements. If Senators are given new district numbers they must either remain as an even or odd because of staggered elections. Those representing even numbered districts are up for reelection in 2024. 

Then there are less strict rules, but other factors that went into to the redistricting process. 

First, Republicans don’t want to give up their gerrymandering advantage. Republican Gov. Bill Lee won 65% of the statewide vote in his 2022 election, while Republicans hold 82% of the seats in the state Senate. This type of gerrymandering is common among both parties in Tennessee, with Democrats using the redistricting process to their advantage in the past when they controlled the state legislature. 

Republicans also don’t want to draw any current members out of their seats because state law requires a Senator to live in the district they represent. 

Other considerations include the desire for at least one majority-minority racial Senate district in Nashville, trying to split as few counties as possible and no larger than a 10% population difference between districts, but less if possible. 

Democrats are likely to rechallenge any Republican map if they don’t follow all three considerations, putting the legality of any new map back in front of the court. 

With those rules set, now let’s get into the maps. 

Outside expert map, creates a new toss-up district

During the court hearings, the plaintiffs who were backed by the Democratic Party hired Jonathan Cervas, a redistricting expert from Carnegie Mellon University, to draw new maps showing how the state could comply with the numbering requirements. 

He produced three maps that all moved Pody’s district 17 seat out of Davidson County, and put Sen. Shane Reeves, R-Murfreesboro, into Davidson County.

Cervas changed the numbering of the districts. Reeves no longer would represent district 14, but instead district 18. Sen. Ferrell Haile, R-Gallatin, becomes the new district 14 representative.

Pody’s district number can’t be changed to from 17 to an even number because of staggered of elections. Under this plan the Davidson County Senate seats would be consecutively numbered.

Cervas’ map kept 25 districts favoring Republicans, six favoring Democrats and turned Reeves’s seat into a toss-up, according to the website Dave’s Redistricting, which uses the party vote in the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections to determine the partisan lean of a seat. 

His map keeps the majority-minority district in Nashville and splits nine counties. 

The Lookout created this map in Dave’s Redistricting to see what it would take to allow Republicans to keep their current Senate advantage. 

This map splits 10 counties, drawing in the district 18 represented by Haile into Davidson County and keeping Pody’s seat in the county as well. 

Republicans would then have to split Wilson County to make the population and numbering requirements work. 

This map keeps the majority-minority district in Nashville, but Democrats could challenge it for dividing up too many counties. 

Democrat proposed map, creating more competitive races

Sen. Jeff Yarbro, D-Nashville, presented this map before the final redistricting vote in 2022.

This map also flips Reeves and Haile’s numbering, moving Reeves into Davidson County and Pody. 

Reeves seat would now lean 51-46% in favor of Democrats, according to Dave’s Redistricting. But it also created four more Democratic-leaning districts and made two Republican-leaning seats more competitive.

This map splits only six counties, the lowest of any, and keeps the majority-minority district in Nashville.