Rolling Blackouts That Cost TVA $170 Million Blamed On Inaccurate AI Predictions, Poor Communication, Other Factors

Image Credit: TVA / Facebook

The Tennessee Conservative [By Paula Gomes] –

The rolling blackouts during Winter Storm Elliot that affected the seven states within Tennessee Valley Authority’s territory last Christmas ultimately cost TVA around $170 million according to their own report.

Inaccurate AI predictions, poor communication and a variety of other factors were to blame for customers going without power, sometimes for long stretches of time, as they prepared for the holidays last year. 

TVA, who serves 153 local power companies that in turn supply power to over 750 thousand businesses and 10 million people, found several weaknesses in the utility’s system after internally reviewing the decisions made during what they called a “once in a generation storm.”

TVA also created a panel to consult with that included former American Public Power Association President Joy Ditto, retired Electric Power Research Institute CEO Mike Howard, and former Senator Bob Corker.

During an informational meeting at the end of January, TVA spokesman Chris Templeton explained that the utility would normally expect to see a portion of their 32,000 megawatts generation transmission system to be impacted in severe weather. Anticipating a 31,000 megawatt peak during the worst of the storm, TVA underestimated by about 10%. The 2,000 mile wide storm challenged the entire system, leading to the highest 24-hour electricity demand on record for TVA in its 90 years of operation.

The rolling blackouts on December 23rd, and 24th, a first for the utility, were met with unhappy customers, and questions from state and federal lawmakers. TVA officials have since had meetings with lawmakers, customers, and the local power companies they partner with.

According to the Tennessean, the new report confirms what was initially disclosed in the early days after the storm:

• The demand for electricity was underestimated.

• The impact on TVA’s power plants was not accurately modeled.

• Instrumentation froze at coal-fired Cumberland Fossil Plant units in the early hours of the storm, shutting down one of TVA’s largest single generators of electricity.

• Other natural gas plants that TVA had purchased had similar issues.

• On Christmas Eve, TVA was subject to a recall of electricity they tried to import from other regional electric markets to make up for some of the units that were out of commission, leading to a second day of blackouts.

The increase in the cost of fuel, and from having to purchase electricity from other markets, repairing and updating plants, and the reduction in power usage from customers and local power companies combined led to $170 million in costs to TVA.

The report emphasized that TVA’s communication on multiple levels needs to be improved both internally and externally and that the flow of information during the severe weather event “was not timely or fully effective.”

Another major problem that the report uncovered was TVA’s AI forecasting tools not accurately predicting storm risk due to not having enough past information. TVA was forced to rely solely on meteorologists for help, but this strategy also proved unsuccessful.

About the Author: Paula Gomes is a Tennessee resident and reporter for The Tennessee Conservative. You can reach Paula at paula@tennesseeconservativenews.com.