Tennessee House District 3 Special Election Favors Former Representative

Former lawmaker Timothy Hill enters election day as favorite, but low turnout race could feature an upset.

Image Credit: Tennessee Comptroller

Analysis By Lucas Brooks [Tennessee Lookout -CC BY-NC-ND 4.0] –

On Thursday, Republican voters across four Upper East Tennessee counties will choose their party’s nominee in the House District 3 special primary election necessitated by the resignation of Republican Rep. Scotty Campbell of Mountain City after an investigation found Campbell had sexually harassed a female intern.

The Johnson County Commission selected former Rep. Timothy Hill, also a Republican, to fill the vacancy between Campbell’s resignation and special election. Hill and Sullivan County real estate agent Stacy Vaughan are running in Thursday’s Republican primary; Lori Love is the sole Democrat running. 

The district stretches from northern Carter County, through Johnson and Sullivan Counties, and ends at the northeastern portion of Hawkins County. The district is mostly rural and mountainous, with the biggest population centers in Mountain City, Bluff City, and the outlying suburbs of Kingsport.

First elected in 2012, Hill represented a previous version of District 3. He held the office until 2020, when he ran in the Republican primary for the open First Congressional District, placing second in the primary to the eventual winner, U.S. Rep.  Diana Harshbarger. In the congressional primary, Hill ran well across most of the district, exceptionally so in Johnson County. However, Hill could not keep up with Harshbarger’s margins in Hawkins and Sullivan counties.

As a right-wing conservative in the legislature, Hill focused  heavily on hot button social issues. But his legislative experience and familiarity with Johnson County Commission members legislator likely helped him in the selection process for the interim post.

Of the other candidates who sought appointment, Vaughan was the only one who stayed on  the primary ballot after not being selected.  A 22-year Air Force veteran, this is his first run for public office. 

Little apparently separates the two candidates politically. Both are social and fiscal conservatives; in all likelihood, they would vote the same way on most bills. Notably, Vaughan has signed a pledge to support congressional term limits with U.S. Term Limits, one of the largest interest groups focused on amending the U.S. Constitution to enact legislative term limits. Based on Hill’s experience — he served eight years in the legislature and his brother, former Rep. Matthew Hill, served 15 years —would support the same goal.

Hill was a prolific fundraiser during his time in the legislature and  experience fundraising  and relationships with PACs and other lawmakers from around the state puts Vaughan at a serious disadvantage.

Hill has both taken and spent quite a bit of money in the run up to the Thursday primary. More than $14,000 was donated from Republican politicians in the state house with an additional $9,000 coming from companies and PACs. Hill also received $5,400 from members of the Gregory family, former owners of Pfizer subsidiary King Pharmaceuticals and longtime supporters of both the Hill brothers,  In contrast, the majority of Vaughan’s revenue comes from a $20,000 self-loan.

Hill is going all in to win the primary. He has spent nearly everything that he has raised so far with the largest portion going to direct mail pieces, spending almost $20,000 worth of them from the political consulting firm, Margin of Victory. He has spent more than $11,000 on three local radio stations and digital marketing. 

Vaughan is also spending on radio advertising, but he has come nowhere close to matching Hill’s spending as he’s spent a little more than $2,000 to buy airtime with a company operating seven radio stations in the Tri-Cities. 

Vaughan has also spent more than $3,000 on printing, which is likely going towards signage or direct mailers of his own. The most notable item from Vaughan’s finance report is that he is holding on to the $20,000 that he originally loaned his campaign. 

Given the disparity in campaign experience and relationships with local politicos, the expectation is that Hill will win the primary by a comfortable margin. He has better name recognition throughout the district, especially in the portions of Carter, Johnson, and Sullivan counties that he represented for most of a decade.

Vaughan has a chance, as Hill and his brother left the state house on less than cordial terms. Vaughan would do well to campaign in the portions of Hawkins and Sullivan counties that Hill never represented. Put together, these parts of the district make up a majority of the voting-age population. 

The advantage is Hill’s but a Vaughan win could happen in what is likely to be an especially low-turnout primary election.