Trump’s Call For New Census Excluding Illegal Aliens Could Have Notable Impact On Tennessee

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The Tennessee Conservative [By Olivia Lupia] –

On Thursday, President Trump announced he has directed the Commerce Department to begin work on a new U.S. Census which specifically excludes illegal aliens from the count. While some might think this new census might be insignificant to “Red” states like Tennessee, the impacts could be broader than just redistricting.

While the most notable result of the national decennial census is the apportionment of Representatives to the U.S. House, thereby establishing a state’s political balance of power, the counts also have ties to financial distributions and federal funding allocations.

Per 2023 estimates, Tennessee has a population of at least 128,000 – 162,000 illegal immigrants, between 1.8%-2.25% of the population, though these numbers do not account for the massive influxes of unknown “got aways” under the Biden administration.

The state has also been identified as one of several red states seeing a proportionally high influx of illegals and has been recently reported as one of the Top 10 states with the most ICE-related arrests.

Whether Tennessee would gain or lose any Congressional seats based on a recount without illegals would ultimately be subject to the nuances of redistricting, but it seems unlikely there would be a loss based solely on a new census.

The Tennessee Lookout has predicted the state to be on track to gain a 10^th seat in 2030 based on a continually growing population consisting primarily of relocations from other states, but other sources say the loss of over 100,000 illegals could lead to the loss of a district depending on the population concentrations and localized shifts.

However, a revised census before the next decade would help to paint a more accurate picture of the state’s current population as the Census Bureau reported in 2020 that Tennessee was undercounted by an estimated 4.78%, approximately 322,000 residents, which would have potentially affected Congressional redistricting for the 2022 election.

But the fiscal impacts could also be significant as census data informs the distribution of federal funding each year. Should the federal government react to a revised census outside of political boundaries, it could serve to incentivize the state to assist in expedited deportations to ensure state and federal monies are appropriately focused.

If the census shows reduced population numbers, federal funding could be cut, potentially spurring the legislature to reevaluate state expenditures, including dollars directed to education, healthcare, including hospitals and Medicaid/Medicare, and other governmental services.

With a reduction in federal funds, lawmakers may have to more carefully scrutinize whether these monies are prioritized for U.S. citizens or continue to flow to illegal immigrants, despite Republican leadership’s assertions these benefits do not exist.

This could particularly affect the education sector given that Tennessee spends hundreds of millions of dollars on illegal alien education each year.

The taxpayer ultimately bears the burden for the strain foreign students place on school districts including the costs of funding English-Language-Learner (ELL) education and the weight on teachers due to increased class sizes.

If federal dollars were reduced, it could compel state lawmakers to cut excess expenditures like those for illegal education and ensure money is being more accurately and responsibly spent. 

Tennessee Conservative founder Brandon Lewis reiterated this point in a recent X post, writing, “If they aren’t here legally and aren’t counted in the Census, why do TN Republicans in Tennessee insist on educating them at taxpayer expense to the tune of $800,000,000 a year?”

Legislation attempting to create a path to restricting illegal alien enrollment in public schools became a divisive focal point in this year’s legislative session and the bill sponsors have indicated intent to revive the bill in 2026 despite potential conflict.

About the Author: Olivia Lupia is a political refugee from Colorado who now calls Tennessee home. A proud follower of Christ, she views all political happenings through a Biblical lens and aims to utilize her knowledge and experience to educate and equip others. Olivia is an outspoken conservative who has run for local office, managed campaigns, and been highly involved with state & local GOPs, state legislatures, and other grassroots organizations and movements. Olivia can be reached at olivia@tennesseeconservativenews.com.