The state GOP see two flip opportunities in the House and one in the Senate. Dems hope to gain 3 to 5 seats in the House and defend their Nashville Senate seat.
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By Adam Friedman [The Tennessee Lookout -CC BY-NC-ND 4.0] –
With less than 100 days until the election, Tennessee state Republicans and Democrats have narrowed their election maps to a handful of seats as each party sees a chance to add members to next year’s General Assembly.
Republicans have limited opportunities to expand their caucus, as they already dominate nearly every seat outside Nashville and Memphis, controlling 75% of House seats and 81% of the Senate.
Democrats see seats in Memphis, Knoxville, Clarksville, Smyrna and possibly Signal Mountain as up for grabs. The addition of Signal Mountain follows the primary loss of more moderate incumbent Republican Patsy Hazlewood to conservative Michele Reneau.
Democrats have also nominated Kathy Lennon, a former school board member and teacher, to face Reneau, hoping her local name recognition and popularity can help overcome party identification.
A top Republican priority is also to regain a foothold in Nashville, where they’ve been shut out of the Senate since 2020 and the House since 2018. The party will also try to flip a Clarksville seat held by Democrat Rep. Ronnie Glynn, who won his 2022 election by 153 votes.
State Republicans and Democrat leaders hesitated to share their election plans, trying not to tip their strategy to the other party.
Republican House Majority Leader William Lamberth of Portland said his caucus was “focused on every race a Republican was running in.”
Democratic House Caucus Chair John Ray Clemmons of Nashville said his party’s positions on issues like abortion and education would allow them to compete in more races than initially anticipated.
Conservative credentials and support for private school vouchers broadly defined Republican primary races in August. The only competitive Democratic primary was in southeast Nashville, where liberal credentials won out over perceived electability.
Republicans want Nashville back
The retirement of Darren Jernigan in southeast Nashville has given the GOP hope it can boost former Republican caucus aide Chad Bobo in his race against Democrat Shaundelle Brooks. Brooks won a heated Democratic primary over Tyler Brasher, who tried to paint the nonprofit executive as unelectable.
Senate Republicans also plan to boost Wyatt Rampy in his attempt to unseat Democrat Heidi Campbell in her seat that wraps around Nashville, connecting its south and north suburbs.
Republicans can afford to contest the Nashville seats and still defend their incumbents because they hold a significant cash advantage over Democrats.
House and Senate Republican caucus and leadership PACs have $2 million and $1 million in the bank, respectively, according to disclosures filed on July 25. In contrast, House Democrats have $440,000, while Senate Democrats have $140,000.
In some races the incumbents do face a cash disadvantage.
Allie Phillips, the Democratic candidate in western Clarksville’s House District 75 seat, has raised more than her opponent Jeff Burkhart with $186,000 in the bank compared to his $85,000. Campbell has about $65,000 in cash on hand, while through personal loans Rampy has over $120,000.
*Note from The Tennessee Conservative: per The Tennessee Lookout’s republishing guidelines, this article has been edited for style and length.
